Some economic gurus in Kaduna on Friday took a hard look at the nation’s economy and expressed grim but, divergent views, especially on the probability of Nigeria sliding again, into recession.

The experts spoke against the backdrop of current global economic challenges, the havoc-wrecking flood, and the whooping sum, presently being expended, on debt servicing, amongst other factors.

Sadly, they all agreed, that the state of health of the nation’s economy was unexciting, even though they argued along parallel lines.

Consequently, they urged the Federal Government and all relevant State actors to redouble their efforts in the struggle to move the country from its present position to something better.

Mr. Yusuf Goje, a Finance Analyst was assertive, stressing that even if there was a faint light of hope down the tunnel, there was an overriding probability of the country sliding into recession.

Goje enumerated the danger signals that influenced his stance on the matter, including the fall in the country’s oil production, its price, and inflation.

He also observed that insecurity, natural disasters like floods, depleting foreign reserves, and high debt servicing, among others, were further straining the nation’s economy and slowing down growth.

He pointed out that the country’s crude oil production had dropped from 1.24 million barrels per day in July, to 937,766 barrels per day, as at Oct. 10.

He added that the dwindling prices of oil internationally had further weakened the nation’s economic status, thereby making it highly volatile to economic shocks.

He described the development as a very serious issue considering that oil was the major source of revenue for the country.

According to him, as it is now, Nigeria does not have any form of immunity garb to economic shocks, adding that any such shocks, no matter how slight, can easily push the country into recession.

“Apart from the fall in the production and the dwindling price of oil, there is also the problem of depleting foreign reserves, with the high exchange rate, in relation to the Dollar.

“Not only that, a substantial amount of our budget is going to debt servicing, just as the country is experiencing disturbing spiral inflation.

“All these are signs that recession is imminent in Nigeria, as such the authorities concerned must fast-track remedial efforts to avert the looming danger”, he warned.

On his part, Terhemba Wuam, a Professor of Economic History, KASU, pointed out that the anticipated paucity of financial resources would affect the functioning of key economic sectors.

According to him, the development will expose the country to economic shocks, thereby creating a scenario of negative economic growth that may expose the country to recession.

Wuam said another serious challenge, was inflation, which had continued to escalate from year to year, thereby, diminishing the purchasing power of the Naira, and slowing down economic growth.
“It is very clear that any failure to raise the needed revenues to fully implement economic and social sector programmes will negatively affect the welfare and prosperity of Nigerians,” he said.
On the contrary, Dr. Peter Adamu, an Economist with the Kaduna State University (KASU), observed that considering the nation’s GDP growth rate, recession was not likely anytime soon.

Adamu explained that a country would have to experience negative growth for six months before it would be considered to be in recession.
“The recent data by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a positive side of growth, which suggests that recession is not likely going to happen anytime soon”, he insisted.

Adamu, however, aligned himself with Goje’s argument on the high inflation rate of above 20 percent, which he said had eroded the purchasing power of average Nigerians.

“This is bad because there is no deliberate fiscal policy in the country’s budget to increase the purchasing power of the people”, he added.

He equally said that flooding and insecurity were also taking heavy toll on the economy, stressing that the government must do something to address those challenges to avert further weakening of the economy.

“Flooding and insecurity have negatively impacted the agriculture sector at the moment, and analysts are already predicting that there will be food insecurity, but we hope not,” he said.

Maritime First